Friday 13 February 2015

Syria crisis: Assad holds on in war without end

Adra damage, Damascus, 11 November 2014


 Jeremy Bowen is full of bollocks. We start with him talking to FSA fighters in his only trip to the rebel side. They probably told him they wanted a democratic state that respected minorities (as you can see from the reference to Turkey), but all he hears is Islamist flavour and all he sees are beards.

 "I managed to cross from government-controlled Damascus to meet them last summer. Their commanders were bearded, pious Muslims who said they condemned the brutality of the jihadists. They said they were prepared to die to destroy President Bashar al-Assad and his regime, and wanted to build a state modelled on 21st Century Turkey, under a government with a distinct Islamist flavour."

 He then interprets the teachers words as blaming all sides equally, after throwing in the she is a 'devout Muslim'.

 "It's President Assad's duty to leave the children out of this war. He needs to stop shelling the schools - but both sides need to stop attacking the children. They have nothing to do with this war. Adults started the fighting - and they can carry on - but they can't use their children to further their aims."

 There is nothing that can be done is the cry of the liberal who wants to excuse injustice.

 "Is there a way to end the war in Syria? Not at the moment, or in the foreseeable future."
People are afraid to say how much they hate him because they know they may be arrested and tortured.

 "President Assad was never as unpopular as the leaders who were deposed in 2011."

 He has support, most noticeably among the Alawis who have dominated his state, much as whites did in South Africa, to them the anti-apartheid movement must have been a cruel joke.

 'President Assad has survived, and that would have been impossible without a degree of popular support. For his supporters, and others who just wanted a quiet life, the so-called "Arab Spring" has been a cruel joke.'

 Civilians in areas besieged my Assad have had no food and face barrel bombings. The civilians in Adra were kept out of the fighting for three weeks. The BBC has generally gone with mentioning Nusra involvement in any attack to the exclusion of the FSA (see the Golan Heights border crossing). There was a disinformation campaign by RT claiming that the rebels had killed many civilians.*

 "Adra was damaged badly in the battle to eject a coalition of armed rebels, dominated by the Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate. 
Mohammad Raja Mahawish, a 40-year-old surveyor, was held in the cellar of his block of flats with his wife, children and 60 others for 22 days after the rebels seized the town almost a year ago."

 It is only the foreign support that has kept Assad in power. He does not have widespread support among Sunni Muslims. Much of the business elite continues to support him, but it is fear that keeps others from expressing their opposition. And even the Alawis are beginning to demonstrate, such as against the governor of Homs for bombing schoolchildren in an attempt to blame rebels. The idea that the armed forces are intact is a joke. They've shrunk from 320,000 to 80,000 with the mass defections, and those remaining don't really want to fight, which is why he needs the Iranians so badly.

 "It has had military, diplomatic and financial support from Iran, Russia and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. But just as importantly, it has kept the support of most of Syria's minorities and enough of the majority Sunni Muslims to survive. That has helped deliver the loyalty of most of the armed forces, another crucial factor. Wholesale defections were often predicted in the first few years of fighting, but never happened."

 Truth isn't important when reporting on Syria. What needs to be done is to interview régime supporters, put a weak version of the truth to them, and let their denial be the story, which is how you achieve balance.

 "What is important is not the truth or otherwise of his views."

 Because they weren't armed they didn't cohere. They were right to blame the West. They had plenty of appeal, but power grows out of the barrel of a gun and only Assad was allowed to have them.

 "An effective and influential alliance of secular, moderate Islamist rebels never emerged. They blamed the West for failing to support them properly. But they were never able to come up with a coherent way to appeal to millions of Syrians locked in their own personal struggles to survive the war."

 No, the US dismissed them as jihadists too, because the demands for removal were just rhetoric, and the US made no attempt to remove him.

 "The president's version of events was rejected and ridiculed by countries who demanded his removal, including the US, Britain, France and Saudi Arabia."

 The truth, but discredited by Bowen as just one of the competing narratives, and one that he knows as a Western journalist doesn't fit things as well as his own insights, and the reality of Assad still being in power.

 "Opponents of the regime say that he worked from the beginning to create the stark choice between the regime and the jihadists, the reality he claimed existed from the start of the fighting.

 His method, they say, was to target more moderate rebels and keep the pressure off the jihadists, first from al-Qaeda and now from the group that calls itself Islamic State."

*[http://claysbeach.blogspot.co.uk/…/fake-adra-massacre-photo…]

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